ProTourBlog

Hello and welcome to ProTourBlog!

After running this blog for a year by now, I decided to try to get some more readers and spice up the life here. Let’s see if this works out. For more information, please check the “About” topic. I’m very sorry for my mistakes, English isn’t my first language.

Since I started this blog almost exactly a year ago, just before the Tour de France, I thought it would be nice to make this first huge change right before the 2008 Tour de France. In my first English post, I’ll discuss the upcoming blockbuster-event of the year, by giving a preview of what’s expected to happen at the Le Grand Boucle.

Unfortunately, at the time I write this, there is no official star list out yet, I’ll have to use the information gathered until now.

About the General Classification:

As most people, I also highlight five guys, who could be the main contenders for the GC. These riders are of course (in alphabetical order) Cadel Evans (SL), Damiano Cunego (LAM), Denis Menchov (RAB), Carlos Sastre (CSC) and Alejandro Valverde (CAI). However, there are a few more, who could be given the “outsider” tag, such as Manuel Beltrán (LIQ), Stijn Devolder (QST), Kim Kirchen (TCO), Riccardo Riccó (SDV) and Haimar Zubeldia (EUS). If everything goes according to the plans, these guys should be in the Top10 for sure.

Taking a closer look at the stages and at the favourites, with 4 uphill finishes Super Besse (stage 6.), Hautacam (10.), Prato Nevoso (15.) and the legendary L’Alpe d’Huez (17.)), and just two time trials (stage 4 and 20, with 29.5 and 53 kilometres, respectively), I have to say, the chances for Evans drop a bit, while those of Cunego, but especially Sastre grow.

We all know, that the favourites are though to beat in the mountains, yet I don’t expect them to arrive together at every single high mountain stage, so there are going to be timegaps definitely. What could be more – no, not exciting, even though last years final was huge – deciding, are the time trials, the long one on the 20th stage particularly. In a 53k ride against the clock and the elements, you can lose and also win a race. But getting to the point, and focusing on the top GC contenders TT abilities, it looks like some of them are going to be in trouble, should that stage decide over life and death.

Evans and Menchov have nothing to worry about – of course, everyone can have a bad day – and Valverde seems to be got a really good time trialist during the last year or so. The ones who could face some serious problems are Cunego and Sastre. The Italian has improved a lot, but I don’t think it would be enough if it comes to a faceoff with someone like Evans. The Spaniard is an even bigger antitalent in the race against the clock, and this is why he just can’t win a Grand Tour. Of course, they’ve been working hard on his skills, but what do you expect from a thirty-something year old rider? While Valverde and Cunego are still young, they can change, just as they did, but Sastre is closer to retirement than Cunego to the start of his professional career. Sastre told the reporters, that his big test will be the Spanish TT championship, which took place today. Well, the finished 12th out of 27 participants, beating only continental team riders and Egoi Martinez, while finishing way down (1′46″ on a 27.7 km course) behind the eventual winner, Luis Leon Sanchez of Caisse d’Epargne. This means, all his talks are rubbish. Come on man, try to live with it and set goals for yourself that you can achieve!

Looking at their teams, it looks like Sastre got the best domestiques. CSC has put a really strong team behind him: the gifted Schleck-brothers are there to support him in the high mountains, while Voigt and O’Grady could take some weight off their shoulders riding at the front at the beginning of the climbs. I don’t expect too much of Cancellara besides the time trials, and to be honest, I don’t know, how the Norwegians are going to perform.

Australian Cadel Evans, runner up of last year’s edition, considered as the main favourite of the race, will have Yaroslav Popovich (acquired from Team Discovery in the offseason) and maybe Dario Cioni at his side in the higher mountains. Of course, that depends on Cioni’s form; it would be nice to see him doing well in the mountains like he did in a Giro some years ago, in the colors of Fassa Bortolo. I’d say Silence-Lotto has made a big mistake by not renewing the contract of Chris Horner (who later joined the not invited Team Astana), because with Horner and Popovich, they could have had the strongest top-domestiques in the whole peloton (In my opinion, at least).

Menchov usually doesn’t get a strong support team from Rabobank, and looking at their full team roster, they don’t have almost anybody who could be good in the mountains. There are only two riders, who could: Dekker and Gesink, but they left Dekker at home, while Gesink is just too young for riding the Tour. Maybe next year, they could put a really strong team together. The seven other riders of the Tour-team are basically for the flats, playing a support role for 8th member of the squad, Oscar Freire. I just read the news, that Rabobank were trying to sign Fabian Cancellara for next year. Of course, he rejected the offer; but look at these fools, they weren’t even trying to get a climber!

What about Caisse d’Epargne? Well, newly crowned Spanish champion Valverde is going to have Oscar Pereiro Sio at his side, as usual. I don’t know their full Tour-roster yet, but it certainly wouldn’t be a bad idea to include Luis Leon Sanchez, Joaquin Rodriguez (if he still has power left after the very demanding Giro) and Vladimir Karpets. Like this, he could have a very powerful squad for the wars in the mountains. However, I’m not sure about the Dauphiné winners since the last few years, they seem to have their form miscalculated. This year, Valverde won the one-week race, so I wonder if he will be alright in the next three weeks.

Finally, let’s see what Lampre has got to offer. Basically nothing. First, we don’t know the full Tour roster and second: who will be guarding Damiano in the mountains? Villa got caught with drugs in April/May, Bruseghin rode his ass off flat out in the Giro, and don’t tell me Ballan will jump on the attacks of Valverde to pull him back. So, it looks like Cunego is on his own, but he doesn’t have to be worried, because he spent his whole season with training in the high mountains, which means he’s got to be strong. He surely has to be, because I think this year could be his year at the Tour. Think about it: the Astana-guys won’t be there, so it’s now or never for him to secure a place on the podium in Paris.

Riders with outsider chances, to round up the Top10:

My top tip is Kim Kirchen, who just got off the race in Switzerland with very impressive results. Last year, he did very well at the Tour, and in this year’s edition, he’s got a super strong team, on which he can rely: best of the top-domestiques George Hincapie, who I surely don’t need to introduce you, upcoming star Thomas Lövkvist and another rising talent, Konstantin Sitsou from Belarus, who beat Levi Leipheimer in this year’s Tour of Georgia!

Tour-veteran Haimar Zubeldia of the Basque team of Euskatel is likely to do well again, especially with the help of Samuel Sanchez, who could be also the leader, if something goes wrong with Zubeldia.

Another rider from the ages when films were black and white is Manuel Beltrán. The little man from Spain will be there in the mountains, maybe he could win a stage. But since there are also time trials in this race, ha has no chance for the overall, so he should settle for a fine Top10 placing.
There is also Riccó. Well, he is the only one of the whole peloton, who I really dislike. So, I’m not going to write any good about him during the following three weeks. I’m certainly not sure about his last-minute inclusion in the Tour-team, I mean, didn’t he know this race was coming or what? For crying out loud, you don’t decide about your participation in the last week before the race, if your team is invited. Anyway, I hope he used all his energy at the Giro and he’s goind to have a hard, hard time at French race, oh, I would have a smirk on my face. Yet I wish good luck for his team-mate Leonardo Piepoli, who crashed out at the Giro. I hope he’s alright by now and will have a great time in the mountains, maybe putting the icing on the cake with a stage win.
Last but not at least there is Stijn Devolder of Quickstep to talk about. He is a very talented rider, who can do very-very well in the time trials and who is getting better and better in the mountains. Last year I expected a lot of him at the Vuelta, unfortunately he had his bad day at the wrong stage. In my opinion, he is going to do well here. Too bad for him, the team is concentrating on the sprints to support Steegmans, so he doesn’t have anybody, who could be at his side when it comes to thin-air regions. I just don’t understand the concept of QuickStep in the case of Juan Manuel Garate. He is the only one, who could do well in the mountains (maybe even going for the polka-dot jersey), and these utter idiots screw Garate’s overall hopes at the Giro (he had to pace the chanceless Visconti when he had the pink jersey) and they leave him home now. Poor Garate, he deserves so much better!

About the polka-dot jersey:

One name: Soler. He is one of the chances for team Barloworld to get the ProTour license next year, so they have almost all their hopes in him. They aren’t wrong doing this by any means, he could be next Virenque. Until last year, I thought it will be Rasmussen, because Rasmussen was unbeatable in the mountains, yet very bad against the clock, so his only chance to do something memorable was to go for the mountain jersey. Unfortunately, the training camp in Mexico blew his chances…But back to the Columbian climbing sensation. He’s going to have strong support from Felix Cardenas, who had a successful Giro and has been King of the mountains at the Vuelta some years ago, in the Heras-era if I remember right.
I don’t know if there will be any challengers for him. Maybe some riders from teams who see their chances in this discipline, and who have no chances for the GC. I think of Trent Lowe and Christian Vande Velde of the Garmin (aka ex-Slipstream), de la Fuente (SDV), Bernard Kohl of Gerolsteiner, who seems to be next Sevilla and Chavanel (some good results in his first years, big plans, and then basically nothing) and Grandpa Christopher Moreau (AGT). Moreau always wanted the KOM jersey, but back then, there was another French guy called Richard Virenque, then it was Rasmussen, who spoiled his plans. Last year, his national champion jersey and the overall win at Dauphiné confused his mind, but a hot day in the mountains immediately pulled him back to Earth. But, if he focuses this year, I’m sure he could do it, even without any help of his weak continental team.

The sprinters:

Without spending to many words on the fast guys, I just mention the ones who we have to watch at the flat stages. Because they are doing so unbelievable bad in the mountains, and we never know, who would eventually make it to Paris, I don’t have a clear favourite for the green jersey.

Let’s see the list:
Baden Cooke and Robert Hunter (BLW), Robbie McEwen (SL), Thor Hushovd (CA), Stuart O’Grady (CSC), Mark Cavendish, Gerald Ciolek and Bernard Eisel (TCO), Filippo Pozzato, Francesco Chicci, Murillo Fischer (Liquigas are going to have a well organised lead-out train, I’m sure), Oscar Freire (RAB), Gert Steegmans (QST, with many other good sprinters, so this is going to be the other main train), Erik Zabel (MRM) and the Magnus Backstedt-Julien Dean duo (GRM) and Romain Feillu (AGT, but he’s going to drop out when they reach the first steeper mountain, Cippolini-style), and maybe Stefan Schumacher of Gerolsteiner. I see his chances in the last hills before the finish, where he could fool sprinters like Cavendish.

The young ones:

Shame on me, I really unsure about the ages of the riders, so I don’t even know, who could compete for the white jersey. However, I can remember Riccó and Vincenzo Nibali of Liquigas from the Giro, where Riccó took the jersey for the second year in a row. Should Riccó be out of form, Nibali would be a clear favourite. Well, at least if we forget about Andy Schleck. But it would be a big mistake, so we should prepair for a battle between these two riders.

People, who you shouldn’t be looking for:

The whole Astana team (including riders like last year’s Tour winner and this year’s Giro winner Contador, Tour podium finisher Klöden, US road champion Leipheimer, Russian time trial champion Gusev, Lithuanian road champion Vaitkus, Portugese time trial champion Paulinho, mountain men Horner, Rubiera and Colom; applaud the ASO…), sprinters like Boonen (too much cocaine), Bennati (injury), Petacchi (way to much asthma-medicine), former Giro chamions Di Luca, Savoldelli and Simoni, time trial stars Wiggins, Pinotti, Zabriskie and Danielson.

Finally: who’s going to win the 2008 Tour de France? My answer:

1. Valverde

2. Evans

3. Menchov

(4. Kirchen, 5. Sastre, 6. Zubeldia)

What do you think? I’d be happy to read your tipps in your comments if you read this.

Edit:

Now that we know the full start list of the Tour-teams, I can add almost the entire Ag2R team to the polka-dot jersey competition, because there will be Dessel, Efimkin, Gadret, Goubert and Valjavec, who are all OK for the mountains (depending on their form, of course) but have no chance going for the GC. I assume Valjavec will be be the highest placed rider, if he has enough power left from the Giro.

To the spinters case: Robert Förster (GST), Jimmy Caspes (AGT), Sébastien Chavanel (FDJ), Leo Doque (COF) can be added to the list.

Addition to the main conterders team line-ups:
Valverde has a huge Spanish armada riding for him, but no Rodriguez and Karpets. But there will be powerhouse Iván Gutiérrez to help him out.
Cunego has (what we knew already) Bruseghin, and (what we didn’t know) Szmyd, Tiralongo and Marzano for the mountains at his side. So, it’s getting interesting!